The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with its decision dropping at 1 PM CST on March 18. Nobody expects a rate cut — market odds are near zero. But this meeting matters more than the headline number suggests.
Here’s why: it’s the first meeting where the Fed publishes updated economic projections and a new dot plot. We’ll see in black and white how Fed members are pricing in Iran, surging oil prices, and the tariff environment. With Powell’s term ending in May and a new Chair coming, the dots could shift more than markets expect. That’s the real story this week.
For clients still heavy in cash and money markets, the question isn’t “will they cut rates?” — it’s “how long can we keep waiting?” Cash yields real money today, but that window is narrowing. If the dot plot signals two or more cuts ahead, we’d rather be extending duration now than scrambling later.
The recent equity pullback — which briefly erased all 2026 gains — is a reminder that volatility never goes away, it just goes quiet for a while. Portfolios built around quality fixed income and real assets are better positioned for what’s ahead than ones anchored to short-term cash.
If you want to talk through your positioning before Wednesday’s announcement, give us a call.
For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Lake Hills Wealth Management is a Registered Investment Advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Our current Form ADV, Part 2A is available at adviserinfo.sec.gov.