After five straight weeks of losses, the S&P 500 posted its best week since November — up 3.4% in a holiday-shortened stretch. Friday’s jobs report came in stronger than expected at 178,000 new positions, and unemployment ticked down to 4.3%. Meanwhile, Powell told a Harvard audience that rates are in a “good place” and took rate hikes off the table, even with oil prices elevated. Treasury yields dropped 10 basis points almost immediately.
Good news. But here’s what matters more to us: our risk-off signals haven’t triggered. That tells us this pullback, while uncomfortable, isn’t signaling something deeper. We don’t see a recession this year. The economy is bending, not breaking. And if our signals do change, we’ll act on them — regardless of what we think the market will do.
What we’re watching closely is liquidity. It’s taken a real hit over the past month, and liquidity is what drives risk assets — stocks, credit, all of it. When liquidity dries up, markets get choppy. That’s exactly what we’ve been living through. But the highest-probability scenario, in our view, is that markets find a floor somewhere around May or June and move higher from there. We believe the same holds for precious metals. Don’t hold us to the exact timing — but the direction is what counts.
Weeks like this can be uncomfortable, but having a proven process helps.
If you want to talk through how your portfolio is positioned, give us a call.
For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Lake Hills Wealth Management is a Registered Investment Advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Our current Form ADV, Part 2A is available at adviserinfo.sec.gov.